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FBO DAILY ISSUE OF JULY 02, 2010 FBO #3142
SOLICITATION NOTICE

A -- Aggregative Contingent Estimation (ACE) Program Broad Agency Announcement (BAA) - IARPA-BAA-10-05 20100630

Notice Date
6/30/2010
 
Notice Type
Combined Synopsis/Solicitation
 
NAICS
541720 — Research and Development in the Social Sciences and Humanities
 
Contracting Office
Office of the Director of National Intelligence, Intelligence Advanced Research Projects Activity, Washington, District of Columbia, 20511, United States
 
ZIP Code
20511
 
Solicitation Number
IARPA-BAA-10-05
 
Archive Date
7/30/2011
 
Point of Contact
Jason G. Matheny,
 
E-Mail Address
dni-iarpa-baa-10-05@ugov.gov
(dni-iarpa-baa-10-05@ugov.gov)
 
Small Business Set-Aside
N/A
 
Description
IARPA-BAA-10-05 OCI certification Letter Template IARPA-BAA-10-05 Template Coversheet for Cost Volume IARPA-BAA-10-05 Template coversheet for Technical Mgmt Volume IARPA-BAA-10-05 Academic Institution Acknowledgment Letter Template IARPA-BAA-10-05 20100630 Intelligence analysts are often asked to forecast significant events on the basis of limited quantitative data. It is common for such events to be contingent upon earlier events or actions. Generally, forecasts are prepared using expert judgment by individuals and small groups. Empirical research outside the intelligence community has shown that the accuracy of judgment-based forecasts is consistently improved by mathematically aggregating many independent judgments. The goal of the ACE Program is to dramatically enhance the accuracy, precision, and timeliness of forecasts for a broad range of event types, through the development of advanced techniques that elicit, weight, and combine the judgments of many intelligence analysts. The ACE Program seeks technical innovations in the following areas: (a) efficient elicitation of probabilistic judgments, including conditional probabilities for contingent events. (b) mathematical aggregation of judgments by many individuals, based on factors that may include past performance, expertise, cognitive style, metaknowledge, and other attributes predictive of accuracy. (c) effective representation of aggregated probabilistic forecasts and their distributions. The ACE Program will build upon technical achievements of past research and on state-of-the-art systems used today for generating probabilistic forecasts from widely-dispersed individuals. The program will involve empirical testing of forecasting accuracy against real events.
 
Web Link
FBO.gov Permalink
(https://www.fbo.gov/notices/54f9f4b696ffeedf52cffc433a2fc878)
 
Record
SN02192277-W 20100702/100630234632-54f9f4b696ffeedf52cffc433a2fc878 (fbodaily.com)
 
Source
FedBizOpps Link to This Notice
(may not be valid after Archive Date)

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