SOURCES SOUGHT
B -- House Pricing Forecast - 25 Years by Metropolitan Statistical Area
- Notice Date
- 2/20/2018
- Notice Type
- Sources Sought
- NAICS
- 519130
— Internet Publishing and Broadcasting and Web Search Portals
- Contracting Office
- Department of Housing and Urban Development, OCPO, Office of Policy and Systems, Community Service/Housing Support Div, 451 7th Street SW, Washington, District of Columbia, 20410, United States
- ZIP Code
- 20410
- Solicitation Number
- SS-2018-H-0006
- Archive Date
- 3/21/2019
- Point of Contact
- Brenda K Lee, Phone: 202-402-3504
- E-Mail Address
-
brenda.k.lee@hud.gov
(brenda.k.lee@hud.gov)
- Small Business Set-Aside
- N/A
- Description
- This is a SOURCES SOUGHT NOTICE to determine the availability and capability of qualified small businesses (including certified 8(a), Small Disadvantaged, HUBZone firms; veteran and service-disabled veteran-owned small businesses, and women-owned small businesses) to provide an on-line 25-year House Price Index forecast data by Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) for the Office of Evaluation. The subscription provides unlimited on-line access for users with passwords to the economic forecast data. The Office of Housing in the Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD), is responsible for risk assessment of FHA-insured and HUD-assisted single- and multifamily properties. Economic data is needed to support an on-line subscription for housing price forecast economic data. This data access is needed to meet vital components of HUDs Strategic Plan with respect to a high level of accountability in the financial management of the FHA insurance programs. This data is used for modeling and predicting FHA loan performance and for computing impacts of the FHA insurance programs and the Federal budget, and for designing risk-management tools The Office of Evaluation currently uses historical data and economic forecasts from an on-line economic data subscription: As the principal source of national and regional economic time series for the statutory mandate to produce an annual MMI Fund actuarial review. This provides an independent, respected, and reliable source of forecasts on house prices and interest rates for computing Liability for Loan Guarantee requirements (loss reserves); As the principal source of time series data for developing internal models of FHA-insured multifamily mortgage claim and prepayment rates. These also are used in the development of Liability for Loan Guarantee calculations and budget valuations of multifamily programs; For analyzing the factors affecting FHAs single-family insured mortgage default and claim rates; For multifamily risk assessment tools developed in this Office for use by multifamily program office staff in headquarters and field offices; and For preparing ad-hoc analyses of economic trends and for the FHA Commissioner and HUD Secretary. Background Apart from its involvement in single- and multifamily risk assessment and risk scoring, the Office of Evaluation is responsible for monitoring the performance of FHAs single family and multifamily programs. It prepares periodic reports to the FHA Commissioner on FHA business activities and oversees the statutorily mandated annual actuarial review of FHAs largest insurance fund. OE is also responsible for assessing the financial impact on FHAs insurance funds of new or revised programs and policies and evaluating relationships between current economic and market conditions and FHA program goals and objectives. House price forecasts are a key economic driver of results from the Independent Actuarial Study of the MMI Fund. National house prices increased significantly for over half of this decade as a sustained lower level of mortgage interest rates, relaxed mortgage underwriting, and Wall Street innovations in mortgage financing increased housing demand. Since 2006, however, the housing market has experienced a house price correction. There have been significant disparities among regions in both their house price appreciation and subsequent house price correction experiences. Therefore, the impact of the recent house price correction on mortgage holders and insurers portfolios depends on their geographic profile. The geographic profile of the FHA portfolio is much different than the geographic profile of the conventional mortgage portfolio since it insured relatively very few loans in states that experienced both significant house price appreciation and correction. Because FHAs geographic risk profile of loans is so much different than the national distribution of loans, using MSA-level house price forecasts in its actuarial model will lead to a more realistic evaluation of the MMI Fund. Description of Services On-line access to 25-year House Price Index forecast data by MSA. The subscription to provides unlimited on-line access for users with 25 passwords to the economic forecast data with the parameters described below: Forecast FHFA house price index both nationally and at the metropolitan area for 30 years. The forecast methodology and validation must be provided to HUD. The forecast methodology for the house price series should be part of an overall economic forecast that is developed from a macroeconomic model. The forecast should be available at the metropolitan area level and these sublevel forecasts should also be part of an overall macroeconomic model and not developed separately. PART A: Provide Forecast Database, Training and Support for Economic Forecast data. Company Overview: Data access and information in an analytical context Internet Support: Web site provides extensive help menus Economic data on-line Support: Available Monday Friday PART B: Forecast Database Subscriptions and Tools U.S. Macro/Financial Forecast Database  Over 1,300 macroeconomic, demographic, and financial variables.  Includes GDP, real estate, FHFA and NAR home prices, employment, prices, interest rates, banking, credit quality, construction, industry, and demographics.  Updated monthly and have a quarterly periodicity, a 30-year forecast horizon.  Alternative scenarios. State Forecast Database  Over 110 variables at the state level. Also includes forecasts for Puerto Rico, Guam, and the Virgin Islands.  Includes FHFA and NAR home prices, housing starts and permits, employment, income, demographics, construction activity, banking, and credit quality.  Updated monthly, and have a quarterly periodicity and 30-year forecast horizon and all available history  Alternative scenarios. Metropolitan Forecast Database  Approximately 70 variables at the metropolitan area level for 378 U.S. areas and nine metro areas in Puerto Rico.  Includes FHFA and NAR home prices, housing permits and starts, employment, income, prices, demographics, construction activity, banking, and credit quality.  Updated monthly, and have a quarterly periodicity and 30-year forecast horizon and all available history.  Alternative scenarios. U.S. National & Regional Historical Database  Include U.S. and regional data on residential real estate prices and construction activity, employment by industry, banking and finance, demographics, personal income, prices, leading indicators, industrial production, retail sales, labor market, energy, financial markets, etc.  Data from over 100 government and private sources at U.S. national, states, metros, counties, cities, and zip code level. The anticipated period of performance is a base period plus 4 one-year option periods. Product Service Code B506.The NAICS Code is 519130 Internet Publishing and Broadcasting and Web Search Portals. The small business size standard is 1000 employees. Interested small business offerors are encouraged to respond to this notice. However, be advised that generic capability statements are not sufficient for effective evaluation of the respondents' capacity and capability to perform the specific work as required. Response must directly demonstrate the company's capability, experience, and/or ability to marshal resources to effectively and efficiently perform each of the tasks described above in sufficient level of detail to allow definitive review of the capability statement and evidence that the contractor can satisfy the minimum requirements listed above in compliance with FAR 52.219-14 ("Limitations of Subcontracting"). Failure to definitively address each of these requirement will result in a finding that respondent lacks capability to perform the work. Responses to this notice shall be limited to ten pages, and must include: 1. Company name, mailing address, e-mail address, telephone and FAX numbers, website address (if available), and the name, telephone number, and e-mail address of a point of contact having the authority and knowledge to clarify responses with Government representatives. 2. Name, title, telephone number, and e-mail addresses of individuals who can verify the demonstrated capabilities identified in the responses. 3. Business size for NAICS XXXX (size standard $ or number of employees) and status, if qualified as an 8(a) firm (must be certified by SBA), Small Disadvantaged Business (must be certified by SBA), Woman-Owned Small Business, HUBZone firm (must be certified by SBA), and/or Service-Disabled Veteran-Owned Small Business (must be listed in the VetBiz Vendor Information Pages). 4. DUNS number, CAGE Code, Tax Identification Number, and company structure (Corporation, LLC, partnership, joint venture, etc.). Companies also must be registered in the Contractor Performance Assessment Reporting System (CPARS), at www.cpars.gov) to be considered as potential sources. 5. Identification of the firm's GSA Schedule contract(s) by Schedule number and contract number and SINs that are applicable to this potential requirement are also requested. 6. If the company has a Government approved accounting system, please identify the agency that approved the system. Please submit copies of any documentation such as letters or certificates to indicate the firm's status (see item #3, above) Teaming arrangements are acceptable, and the information required above on the company responding to this announcement, should also be provided for each entity expected to be teammates of the respondent for performance of this work. To the maximum extent possible, please submit non-proprietary information. Any proprietary information submitted should be identified as such and will be properly protected from disclosure. This notice is for planning purposes only, and does not constitute an Invitation for Bids, a Request for Proposals, a Solicitation, and a Request for Quotes, or an indication the Government will contract for the items contained in this announcement. This request is not to be construed as a commitment on the part of the Government to award a contract, nor does the Government intend to pay for any information submitted as a result of this request. The Government will not reimburse respondents for any cost associated with submission of the information being requested or reimburse expenses incurred to interested parties for responses to this announcement. Responses to this announcement will not be returned, nor will there be any ensuing discussions or debriefings of any responses. However, information obtained as a result of this announcement may be reflected in the subsequent solicitation, and HUD may contact one or more respondents for clarifications and to enhance the Government's understanding. This announcement is Government market research, and may result in revisions in both its requirements and its acquisition strategy based on industry responses. RESPONDENTS MUST SUBMIT CAPABILITY STATEMENT VIA E-MAIL to Brenda K. Lee at brenda.k.lee@hud.gov no later than March 6, 2018 12:00 PM Eastern Standard Time for consideration.
- Web Link
-
FBO.gov Permalink
(https://www.fbo.gov/notices/93e606ff5decaeb7d4fb62ec31d324f3)
- Place of Performance
- Address: 451 7th Street, Washington, District of Columbia, 20410, United States
- Zip Code: 20410
- Zip Code: 20410
- Record
- SN04827680-W 20180222/180220230958-93e606ff5decaeb7d4fb62ec31d324f3 (fbodaily.com)
- Source
-
FedBizOpps Link to This Notice
(may not be valid after Archive Date)
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