MODIFICATION
A -- Forecasting Counterfactuals in Uncontrolled Settings (FOCUS) - Solicitation 1
- Notice Date
- 3/29/2018
- Notice Type
- Modification/Amendment
- NAICS
- 541715
— Research and Development in the Physical, Engineering, and Life Sciences (except Nanotechnology and Biotechnology)
- Contracting Office
- Department of the Interior, Interior Business Center, AQD - Herndon, 381 Elden St. Mail Stop 2510, Herndon, Virginia, 20170, United States
- ZIP Code
- 20170
- Solicitation Number
- IARPA-BAA-17-08
- Archive Date
- 8/28/2018
- Point of Contact
- Kevin Woody, , Nina Leshock,
- E-Mail Address
-
DOI_IARPA_FOCUS@ibc.doi.gov, DOI_IARPA_FOCUS@ibc.doi.gov
(DOI_IARPA_FOCUS@ibc.doi.gov, DOI_IARPA_FOCUS@ibc.doi.gov)
- Small Business Set-Aside
- N/A
- Description
- IARPA-BAA-17-08; Broad Agency Announcement - FOCUS This notice constitutes the official issuance of Broad Agency Announcement (BAA), IARPA-BAA-17-08, and sets forth research of interest in the area of Forecasting Counterfactuals in Uncontrolled Settings (FOCUS). Overview: The FOCUS program seeks to develop and empirically evaluate systematic approaches to counterfactual forecasting and lessons learned processes. Counterfactual forecasts are statements about what would have happened if different circumstances had occurred. For example, a postmortem review of an analysis failure may lead to a conclusion that analysts would have avoided the failure if they employed better analytic tradecraft; perhaps by having double checked assumptions, perhaps by having considered a broader range of hypotheses, etc. Counterfactual forecasts about what would have worked in past circumstances are very often the basis for lessons learned for what to do in the future. And such lessons often evolve, over time, into best practices and tradecraft. To date there has been little in the way of research that measures the extent to which different approaches to counterfactual forecasting yield accurate vs. inaccurate counterfactual forecasts. And there is a similar paucity of research on the accuracy of lessons drawn from different lessons learned approaches. As a result, there does not exist evidence-based guidance for approaching lessons learned activities or for developing the counterfactual forecasts that are the core of such activities; and also unfortunately there is correspondingly little evidence supporting a claim that the lessons learned from current lessons learned approaches are usually the right lessons. FOCUS will address this research gap by developing and empirically testing alternative approaches to structuring counterfactual forecasting and lessons learned processes in ways that (a) can be readily incorporated into lessons learned activities relevant to improving intelligence analysis and tradecraft, but also (b) are broadly relevant to any organizational lessons learned activity. *** The group mailbox IARPA-BAA-17-08 has been disabled. Please be advised that the contracting activity managing this requirement (FOCUS) has changed from IARPA Contracts to Department of Interior (DOI), Interior Business Center (IBC) Contracting Division. The contact information for the points of contact at DOI IBC are provided below. Please direct all questions related to the FOCUS BAA to the DOI FOCUS group mailbox. Please feel free to note the Department of the Interior, Interior Business Center Contracting Officer and Contract Specialist point of contacts are: Contracting Officer Mr. Kevin Woody 703-964-3568 DOI_IARPA_FOCUS@ibc.doi.gov Contract Specialist Mrs. Nina Leshock 703-964-8413 DOI_IARPA_FOCUS@ibc.doi.gov
- Web Link
-
FBO.gov Permalink
(https://www.fbo.gov/notices/90c2da6f8b2eec988f0102b0c0de3933)
- Place of Performance
- Address: TBD, United States
- Record
- SN04872015-W 20180331/180329231726-90c2da6f8b2eec988f0102b0c0de3933 (fbodaily.com)
- Source
-
FedBizOpps Link to This Notice
(may not be valid after Archive Date)
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